The Challenge of Forecasting the Size of a Black-Swan Market

Uncertainty tied to the pandemic produced a roller-coaster of economic changes that undermined even the most reliable statistical forecasting models. For the first time since 2005, CSA Research did not release our 2020 Global Market Sizing numbers when we released the ranking of the largest LSPs in the world. We knew that it would be irresponsible to forecast market trends in the waves of severe uncertainty.

Prior to sizing the 2020 market and forecast, we understood that we needed reliable data from the language market, global buyers’ third-quarter financial results, and macro-economic data from the broader economy. Today, and after a long journey of collecting that data, we feel confident to release our model with the reliability and consistency of its data to bring forward three market size scenarios from the many that we ran rather than a single 2020 number.